Did the Colts pull the trigger too soon on Peyton Manning?
What happens Sunday at Denver's Sports Authority Field will go a long way toward answering that question as Manning and the Broncos face his former team for the third time since Indianapolis cut the franchise legend two years ago.
What will make this time more definitive is that it's an AFC divisional playoff game, which means the stakes are a lot higher than the two previous meetings in the regular season that the teams split.
The Colts made the move because of concerns that Manning's neck condition might end his career, and ending up with Andrew Luck as his replacement doesn't exactly qualify as drawing the short straw.
But with Manning going 38-10 since then while leading the Broncos to one Super Bowl appearance and talking about playing at least two more years, the question of whether Indy owner Jim Irsay's gamble backfired — at least in the short-term — is legitimate.
Especially since the Colts haven't come anywhere near a Super Bowl since Manning left, although Luck was Rookie of the Year and has won playoff games in two of his first three seasons.
Just don't expect Manning to join the debate.
"This is 2015, we're playing Indianapolis in this divisional round and that's kind of where our focus is," Manning told reporters Wednesday. "Anything that's happened in years past — six, seven, eight years ago — I'm not sure the impact that it's had on this particular team."
Andrew LuckPhoto: EPA
The Broncos certainly ended up the big winners in his departure from the franchise that made Manning the No. 1 overall pick in 1998 and was rejuvenated by him in return.
But Manning's performance the past five games are leading some to wonder if Irsay might end up getting the last laugh. The 38-year-old Manning has looked every bit his age in that span, completing 61 percent of his passes (low for him) for just 234 yards per game with five touchdowns and six interceptions.
The low point was a Monday night loss to the Bengals in Week 16 in which Manning was intercepted four times, paving the way for a 44-28 loss that cost Denver the No. 1 seed and a guarantee of homefield advantage throughout the playoffs.
That showing has prompted questions about whether Manning is secretly nursing an injury or if age has caught up in a hurry with the Canton-bound passer.
Manning's former coach, Tony Dungy, told Dan Patrick this week that Manning appears to be bothered by a thigh issue and that — despite a host of wobblers and the distinct lack of pop lately — there is nothing wrong with his passing arm.
"I don't think it's his arm," Dungy said. "It could be the thigh. It could be just the season taking a toll. I think you're going to see the real Peyton Manning, whatever that is, this weekend. You're gonna know if something is wrong with Peyton Manning after this weekend's game."
If Manning and the Broncos prevail, don't look for him to twist the knife with Irsay over what happened two years ago. Even Manning thinks the Colts made out just fine with Luck as his replacement.
"It's not a surprise at all to me," Manning said of Luck's strong NFL start. "A guy who has as much talent as he has, you combine that with the type of work ethic that you hear that he has, and the times that I've been around him, you just kind of knew he was going to do everything that he could to be a special player."
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