Weak ad market worrying media investors

Written By Unknown on Rabu, 05 November 2014 | 20.49

Media stocks had a rocky Tuesday after Discovery Communications lowered guidance and Dish threatened to drop Time Warner's CNN over a possible carriage dispute.

Few big programmers were spared, as Discovery shares slipped 6.6 percent, Time Warner fell 4.8 percent, Viacom and CBS each lost more than 4 percent and Scripps Networks fell 3.7 percent.

Investors are concerned that softening ratings and a weak ad market do not augur well for future quarters.

Many big cable outlets are suffering from poor ratings, the result, in part, of Nielsen's inclusion of broadband only homes.

Late last month, NBCUniversal noted a 4.6 percent drop in ad revenue in the third quarter with its CEO Steve Burke, saying lower ratings might be the new reality for cable channels.

Discovery, the second major programmer to report earnings, put in a stellar international performance thanks in part to Eurosport but reported a 1 percent uptick in domestic ad revenue in the third quarter with not much visibility on November and December.

"One perspective is [advertisers] are changing the way they come to market," Judy Kenny, network sales boss at Estrella TV, told The Post.

Advertisers are doing more digital and more programmatic (automated) buying, Kenny said.

The expectation is that the industry will ring up overall ad revenue gains of a paltry 1 percent, according to analyst Michael Nathanson of MoffettNathanson.

While 21st Century Fox bucked the trend, reporting after the market closed a 10 percent uptick in cable ad revenue, President and COO Chase Carey noted that the automotive category had been "keeping more of the money in their pockets," and advertising less.

While the shift to digital is a long-term trend, the economy was also a concern for big marketers, Carey said.

While Fox shares were down 3 percent during normal trading hours — joining its peers in the downdraft — they rallied 1.6 percent after hours on the upbeat third-quarter ad revenue news.


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